Thanksgiving Planning: Preparing Your Q1 2026 Government Contracting Pipeline

As turkey and football take center stage this week, savvy government contractors are thinking about something else entirely: the first quarter of federal fiscal year 2026.

The federal government's fiscal year kicked off on October 1st, and by the time you're reading this over pumpkin pie, Q1 is already well underway. For contractors, this creates both opportunity and urgency. Fresh budgets are being spent. New requirements are being released. And the contractors who prepared their pipelines in advance are already capturing the best opportunities.

Understanding the Federal Spending Cycle

Before diving into pipeline strategy, it's worth understanding why Q1 matters—and how it fits into the broader federal buying cycle.

The federal fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30, with Q1 covering October through December. This first quarter has distinct characteristics that differentiate it from the rest of the year:

Q1 Characteristics

Fresh Budget Authority: Assuming Congress has passed appropriations (or a continuing resolution), agencies enter Q1 with new spending authority. Program managers are eager to initiate planned procurements.

New Priorities Implementation: FY26 strategic plans are being put into action. Requirements identified during the prior year's planning cycle are now moving toward solicitation.

Moderate Urgency: Unlike the Q4 "use it or lose it" rush, Q1 spending is more deliberate. Agencies have time to conduct proper market research and competitive procurements.

Historical Q1 Spending Patterns

Defense remains the most consistent Q1 spender. In Q1 of FY2022, the Department of Defense obligated over $60 billion in contracts, maintaining steady activity driven by ongoing operations and long-term program requirements.

Healthcare and IT sectors also see strong Q1 activity. Agencies like HHS continue funding public health initiatives, while IT modernization and cybersecurity investments remain priorities across the federal government.

However, Q1 spending can vary based on budget realities. Recent data shows that GSA Advantage sales dropped 21% in Q1 2025 compared to the prior year, signaling a more conservative spending approach in some areas. At the same time, the VA increased its spending by 29% in Q1 2025—demonstrating that opportunities exist even in constrained environments.

Why Pipeline Management Matters

According to government contracting best practices, "winning in the federal marketplace isn't about reacting to every RFP—it's about planning, qualifying, and pursuing the right opportunities long before they go live."

A Government Contracting Pipeline is a structured list of upcoming or forecasted contract opportunities your company is actively tracking, qualifying, and preparing to pursue. Unlike a static list of bids, this pipeline is dynamic—it helps teams monitor progress, allocate resources, and prepare well in advance of RFP releases.

The Cost of Reactive Bidding

Contractors who don't maintain a disciplined pipeline end up in perpetual reactive mode:

• Discovering opportunities when the RFP drops, leaving insufficient time for quality responses
• Pursuing everything that matches their NAICS codes, spreading resources thin
• Starting each proposal from scratch without pre-positioned content or relationships
• Making go/no-go decisions based on gut feel rather than data

The result? Low win rates, exhausted teams, and missed opportunities with higher probability of success.

Building Your Q1 2026 Pipeline

Use this Thanksgiving week to assess and strengthen your pipeline for the coming quarter. Here's a systematic approach:

Step 1: Audit Your Current Pipeline

Start by reviewing every opportunity you're currently tracking:

Active Pursuits: What RFPs are you currently responding to? What's your realistic probability of win (PWin) for each? Are resources appropriately allocated?

Forecasted Opportunities: What opportunities have you identified that haven't yet been solicited? When are they expected to release? What's your capture status?

Recently Lost: What contracts did you lose in Q4? Are there follow-on or related opportunities emerging? What lessons apply to future pursuits?

Step 2: Research Upcoming Opportunities

Several sources help identify Q1 opportunities before they hit the street:

SAM.gov Forecast: Many agencies publish procurement forecasts showing planned acquisitions. Check the forecasts for agencies aligned with your capabilities.

Agency-Specific Portals: DOD, NASA, VA, and other large agencies maintain their own opportunity portals with additional forecast information.

Expiring Contracts: Contracts with periods of performance ending in FY26 may be recompeted. Research incumbents and requirements to identify potential targets.

Industry Intelligence: Sources like GovWin IQ provide market analysis and early opportunity identification.

Step 3: Qualify Ruthlessly

Not every opportunity belongs in your pipeline. Effective qualification prevents wasted resources on unwinnable pursuits.

For each potential opportunity, assess:

Capability Fit: Do you have the technical capabilities, past performance, and certifications required? Are there gaps you cannot close before proposal submission?

Competitive Position: Who is the incumbent? What's your relationship with the customer? Have you shaped this opportunity, or are you learning about it for the first time?

Resource Reality: Can you actually resource this pursuit while maintaining quality on other commitments? What's the proposal effort required?

Strategic Value: Even if winnable, does this contract advance your strategic goals? Does it position you for future growth?

As Deltek's capture planning guide emphasizes, companies should "use solutions to understand the nuances of how government agencies operate and what their preferences are, in order to create a powerful proposal."

Step 4: Assign Owners and Next Actions

A pipeline entry without an owner is just a wish. For each qualified opportunity, designate:

• Capture Lead: Who is responsible for advancing this opportunity?
• Current Stage: Where does this sit in your capture process?
• Next Action: What specific step moves this opportunity forward?
• Decision Date: When will you make the final bid/no-bid decision?

This accountability ensures opportunities don't languish while competitors capture them.

The Capture Management Lifecycle

A mature capture process moves opportunities through defined stages:

Stage 1: Identification

You've discovered the opportunity through forecasting, industry contacts, or market research. At this stage, you're conducting initial research to understand scope, timing, and potential fit.

Stage 2: Qualification

Internal review of the opportunity against your capabilities, competitive position, and strategic priorities. This stage ends with a preliminary bid/no-bid decision.

Stage 3: Capture/Shaping

Active engagement to understand requirements, build customer relationships, and influence the procurement where appropriate. You're gathering intelligence, developing solutions, and potentially identifying teaming partners.

Stage 4: Proposal Readiness

Final preparation before RFP release. Compliance matrices are drafted, win themes are defined, proposal team is assigned, and all required certifications are in place.

Stage 5: Proposal Response

The RFP has dropped. You're executing your response plan, leveraging the preparation from prior stages.

Stage 6: Awaiting Award

Proposal submitted. Now it's debriefs, lessons learned, and potentially preparing for protests or negotiations.

Q1-Specific Pipeline Actions

As you plan for Q1 2026, consider these time-sensitive activities:

Update Certifications

Are your SAM.gov registrations current? Have any certifications (SDVOSB, 8(a), HUBZone) expired or changed? Q1 is a good time to ensure all credentials are in order.

Refresh Past Performance

Review your past performance narratives. Have you completed recent contracts that should be added? Are your CPARS ratings current? Strong past performance is often the deciding factor in competitive evaluations.

Build Content Libraries

What content do you find yourself recreating for every proposal? Capability statements, management approaches, quality plans, and standard certifications can all be pre-developed and refined during slower periods.

Strengthen Relationships

Q1 is excellent for customer engagement. Agency program managers have new budgets and are often more accessible than during the Q4 rush. Schedule meetings, attend industry days, and build the relationships that inform future captures.

Analyze Competitors

Who are you consistently competing against? What are their strengths and weaknesses? Where have they won recently? Competitive intelligence gathered now informs positioning on Q1 opportunities.

The Planning Advantage

There's a reason the most successful government contractors treat pipeline management as a discipline rather than an afterthought. By the time an RFP hits the street, the outcome is often already determined—by the relationships built, the solutions developed, and the positioning established during capture.

This Thanksgiving, while others are disconnecting, take a few hours to review your pipeline. The opportunities you identify and qualify now will determine your Q1 results.

What requirements are you tracking? Which opportunities deserve more attention? Where should you invest your limited business development resources?

The contractors who answer these questions thoughtfully will enter Q1 with confidence. Those who don't will spend another quarter in reactive mode, chasing RFPs with proposal teams that are always one step behind.

From Pipeline to Proposal

Of course, a strong pipeline is only valuable if you can convert opportunities into winning proposals. When Q1 RFPs arrive, you need to move quickly—extracting requirements, assessing compliance, and producing quality responses under tight deadlines.

This is where systematic proposal processes become essential. The work you do now to build your pipeline should connect seamlessly to the work you'll do later to respond.